As such, they may live to fight another day and rejoin other al-Qaida linked groups.The threat that ASL directly poses may be significantly reduced in the short term, but while chaos and insecurity still reign throughout Libya, it may not take the group, or others similar to it, long to rebuild a support base.Smith and Pack argue that in Libya, al-Qaida-linked groups have done a better job than their ISIS-linked counterparts at staying rooted to local concerns, local actors, and evolving country dynamics, and that this has allowed them to mimic and replicate local and traditional power structures.
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In the lead up UN envoy Ghassan Salame was adamant that 17 December was only another day in the political process.
The steady progress led by Salame in ensuring the LPA carries forward beyond the date and his efforts in cementing political arrangements to reunify sovereign institutions seems to be bearing fruit despite attempts to disrupt the process.
Indeed, al-Qaida-linked groups have done a better job mimicking such local and traditional structures than their ISIS-linked equivalents.” has published an analysis by Emily Estelle on recent events that may unsettle the Libyan peace process in the wake of December 17.
Estelle points to the assassination of Misrata mayor, Mohammed Eshtawi, and Libyan National Army commander Khalifa Haftar’s rejection of the Libyan Political Agreement as triggers to instability.
Estelle expands upon this, suggesting: “Haftar’s rejection of the LPA is his strongest statement so far indicating that he will run for president in 2018.
His position diverges somewhat from that of his political allies in the Libyan House of Representatives, who had the upper hand in the UN-led talks and avoided rejecting the LPA entirely.
In Derna, the DMSC [Derna Mujahadeen Shura Council] has cemented its legitimacy, not by watering down its ideological beliefs, but by framing its objectives so that they specifically appeal to the historic and socio-political context of Derna itself.
By defeating ISIS and fighting against Haftar, the DMSC and its constituent parts have appealed to ingrained fears of central authority, thereby portraying themselves as patriotic Libyans first, Salafi-jihadis second.
It is particularly important that private frustrations be vented publicly by Haftar’s regional allies, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who appear to have been snubbed by their client once again, as well as countries such as France and Russia, which have done much to engage with him and push him toward diplomacy over the past year.